DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE ECONOMY AND STRUCTURAL SHIFTS IN THE LABOR MARKET: ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT AND WORKER COMPETENCY REQUIREMENTS

Abstract

The accelerating digital transformation of the economy creates a fundamentally new labor market configuration, generating imbalances between competency demand and supply. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of digitalization on employment structure and professional requirements for workers based on Russian economy data for 2015-2024. The methodological basis comprises econometric methods (regression analysis, panel data for 85 Russian Federation subjects), shift-share decomposition of employment changes, and content analysis of 180 thousand vacancies from leading Russian recruitment platforms for 2018-2024. It is established that the regional digitalization index is significantly positively associated with the share of highly skilled occupations (beta = 0.34, p less than 0.01) and negatively with the share of routine cognitive occupations (beta = -0.28, p less than 0.01). Decomposition showed that 62% of IT sector employment growth in 2019-2024 is attributable to competitiveness effect rather than structural shift. Content analysis of vacancies revealed a 3.7-fold increase in the frequency of digital competency mentions over 2018- 2024, with the largest increase in the financial sector (+5.2 times) and manufacturing (+4.1 times). A vulnerability matrix of occupations to automation is proposed accounting for Russian labor market specifics. Results indicate the need for systematic restructuring of vocational education and worker retraining systems.